Improving Pipeline Opportunity Assesment Using Predictive Analytics




Collaborative for CUBES

16 November, 2021

Background

Data

## [1] 3746

Data

Data

Old Provider vs New Provider

Old Provider vs New Provider

Old Provider vs New Provider - Sodexo

Old Provider vs New Provider - By Opportunity Global Region

Old Provider vs New Provider - By Opportunity Global Region

Old Provider vs New Provider - By Service Level 1

Old Provider vs New Provider - By Service Level 1

Old Provider vs New Provider - By Strategic Segment L1

Old Provider vs New Provider - By Strategic Segment L1

Old Provider vs New Provider - By Regional Strategic Account

Old Provider vs New Provider - By Regional Strategic Account

Regression Analysis - Logistic Regression

Logistic Regression Model Predicting Sodexo Winning the Bid
Sodexo Winning the Bid
Full Data
Old ProviderAramark -2.130***
(0.329)
Old ProviderCompass -1.384***
(0.165)
Old ProviderOther -1.163***
(0.091)
Opportunity Global RegionAMENA -13.105
(309.686)
Opportunity Global RegionASIA PACIFIC 0.267**
(0.125)
Opportunity Global RegionBRAZIL -0.510***
(0.140)
Opportunity Global RegionCONTINENTAL EUROPE 0.588***
(0.181)
Opportunity Global RegionLATAM -0.146
(0.142)
Opportunity Global RegionNO REGION -2.597**
(1.021)
Opportunity Global RegionUK I
(0.149)
Service Level 1Food 0.062
(0.145)
Service Level 1Integrated services -0.195
(0.142)
Service Level 1Soft FM 0.291**
(0.140)
Strategic Segment L1Corporate Services 0.347
(0.493)
Strategic Segment L1Energy -0.086
(0.100)
Strategic Segment L1Government Services 0.508
(0.603)
Strategic Segment L1Healthcare -14.210
(882.743)
Strategic Segment L1No Segment -13.030
(509.088)
Strategic Segment L1Schools 15.173
(882.743)
Regional Strategic Account1 0.267
(0.209)
year_greater_than_20161 0.538***
(0.136)
Revenue (Annual) (converted) in Mill Euros -0.051***
(0.016)
Margin (GP/BR) -0.006***
(0.002)
Constant -0.226
(0.201)
N 3,746
Log Likelihood -2,066.078
Akaike Inf. Crit. 4,180.155
Notes: ***Significant at the 1 percent level.
**Significant at the 5 percent level.
*Significant at the 10 percent level.
Base Case - Old Provider = ‘Sodexo’; Opportunity Global Regian = ‘NORAM’; Service Level 1 = ‘Hard FM’; Strategic Segment L1 =‘Mining’

Regression Analysis - Multinomial Logistic Regression

Multinomial Logistic Regression Model Predicting New Provider Relative to Sodexo
Aramark Compass Other
Old ProviderAramark 3.970*** 0.600 2.050***
(0.519) (0.503) (0.347)
Old ProviderCompass 1.417** 1.468*** 1.338***
(0.560) (0.205) (0.179)
Old ProviderOther -0.112 -1.050*** 1.597***
(0.486) (0.166) (0.100)
Opportunity Global RegionAMENA 4.584*** -6.646*** 44.918***
(0.000) (0.000) (0.000)
Opportunity Global RegionASIA PACIFIC -36.288*** 0.180 -0.334***
(0.000) (0.236) (0.129)
Opportunity Global RegionBRAZIL -32.785 0.446 0.509***
(0.274) (0.143)
Opportunity Global RegionCONTINENTAL EUROPE -0.550 -0.234 -0.662***
(0.890) (0.301) (0.191)
Opportunity Global RegionLATAM 0.793 -0.025 0.158
(0.625) (0.295) (0.147)
Opportunity Global RegionNO REGION -5.981*** -90.517 2.655***
(0.00004) (1.024)
Opportunity Global RegionUK I 0.859 -0.654**
(0.587) (0.291) (0.156)
Service Level 1Food 0.549 0.184 -0.122
(0.812) (0.284) (0.149)
Service Level 1Integrated services 0.841 0.581** 0.119
(0.872) (0.289) (0.146)
Service Level 1Soft FM 0.280 -0.258 -0.300**
(0.818) (0.296) (0.143)
Strategic Segment L1Corporate Services -24.634*** -52.070 -0.341
(0.000) (0.500)
Strategic Segment L1Energy -1.052** 0.439** 0.055
(0.527) (0.199) (0.103)
Strategic Segment L1Government Services -33.784 -44.892*** -0.474
(0.000) (0.616)
Strategic Segment L1Healthcare 0.605*** -1.528*** 46.596***
(0.000) (0.000) (0.000)
Strategic Segment L1No Segment -0.164*** -5.814 44.883***
(0.000) (0.000)
Strategic Segment L1Schools -1.213*** -21.328*** -52.843***
(0.000) (0.000) (0.000)
Regional Strategic Account1 -18.609*** 0.026 -0.270
(0.000) (0.409) (0.215)
year_greater_than_20161 -0.886 -1.213*** -0.370***
(0.571) (0.226) (0.141)
Revenue (Annual) (converted) in Mill Euros 0.074** 0.099*** 0.043***
(0.037) (0.020) (0.016)
Margin (GP/BR) -0.007 0.008*** 0.005***
(0.010) (0.003) (0.002)
Constant -2.951*** -1.032*** -0.290
(0.987) (0.370) (0.210)
Akaike Inf. Crit. 6,008.598 6,008.598 6,008.598
Notes: ***Significant at the 1 percent level.
**Significant at the 5 percent level.
*Significant at the 10 percent level.
Base Case - Old Provider = ‘Sodexo’; Opportunity Global Regian = ‘NORAM’; Service Level 1 = ‘Hard FM’; Strategic Segment L1 =‘Mining’

Using Machine Learning to Improve Predictive Accuracy

Ensemble Learning

Ensemble Learning

Ensemble Learning

Deployment

Link to the App to Predict Win Probability